The alarm bells are ringing in the scientific community as the phenomenon of climate change, already a pressing concern, presents a new and terrifying mystery. A dramatic and accelerated spike in atmospheric methane over the past 16 years may be a sign that Earth’s climate could change dramatically within decades. This potential change isn’t just a minor adjustment; it could be an event akin to the “termination” events that ended ice ages in the past, replacing expanses of frosty tundra with tropical savanna.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas emitted from both human and natural sources. While the significance of carbon dioxide often takes center stage in climate discussions, methane is over 25 times more potent in its heat-trapping capability. Thus, any major increase in methane levels is a matter of great concern, not just for climate scientists but for humanity as a whole.

The history of Earth’s climate includes numerous terminations, dramatic shifts that ended ice ages and transformed the world’s climate from glacial to interglacial. These terminations typically occurred in three phases, with a gradual rise in methane and CO2, leading to global warming over thousands of years, followed by a sharp increase in temperatures fueled by a burst of methane. The world has seen this process repeat itself over 800,000 years.

The current trend, however, is both peculiar and alarming. Methane started rising in late 2006, without any corresponding dramatic shift in human activity. By 2020, methane levels were increasing at an unprecedented rate. This abrupt phase, which typically takes only a few decades within the termination process, could be happening right now, driven by tropical wetlands. Research lead Euan Nisbet, a professor emeritus of Earth sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, described this event as a “major reorganization of the Earth’s climate system.”

While human emissions of methane soared in the 1980s with the expansion of the natural gas industry, the stabilization occurred in the 1990s. The spike that began in 2006 puzzled researchers until they realized, in 2013, that this rise was accelerating. The cause, they discovered, is tropical wetlands, primarily in Africa, which have become significant contributors to this increase. Changes in tropical weather, attributed to human-caused climate change, have led these wetlands to expand, causing more plants to grow and decompose. This decomposition process produces methane.

A flurry of studies since 2019 has confirmed this link between tropical wetlands and the surge in methane. The scale of this shift in climate is both fascinating and terrifying. In the past, terminations have transformed vast icy expanses in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to significant climate changes. These changes have historically ended ice ages, replacing frigid landscapes with more temperate environments or tundra, although not necessarily tropical grasslands as we understand them today. What this could signify in the present context, given that we are not in an ice age, remains an open question and the subject of intense scientific inquiry.

There have been a number of recent research studies that have investigated the link between methane emissions and tropical wetlands, particularly focusing on the acceleration of emissions since 2006. Some of these studies include:


These studies collectively present a concerning picture of the emerging role of tropical wetlands in global methane emissions. The significant and rapid increase in these emissions, as detailed in the research, underscores the urgency in understanding and addressing this aspect of climate change. The scientific community is actively working to unravel this complex issue, but the implications are clear: tropical wetlands have become a critical frontier in the fight against global warming.

The evidence, although not entirely conclusive, poses a serious question that the world must address. The closest analogy we have to what might be happening today is the past terminations, as described by Nisbet. Tackling methane emissions should be high on our list of priorities. This includes addressing emissions from various sources such as gas leaks, manure, landfill, and crop waste. We can do much to reduce methane emissions, and it is vital that we act promptly.

The evidence regarding this accelerated spike in atmospheric methane points to a complex interplay of factors. While human activities such as the expansion of the natural gas industry and changes in tropical weather attributed to climate change have played a role, it’s essential to recognize that the Earth’s climate system is intricate and multifaceted. Natural processes, including volcanic activity, geological seepage, and shifts in oceanic currents, also contribute to variations in greenhouse gases like methane. As the studies cited in this article demonstrate, the exact cause of the recent surge in methane emissions is still under investigation, requiring a nuanced understanding that takes into account both human and natural elements.

Our article has expanded upon the initial findings, incorporating additional research studies and insights into the alarming trend of methane emissions. For further background on the original phenomenon, you can refer to the article published on Live Science. The combined efforts of scientists around the globe continue to deepen our understanding of this urgent matter, and our investigation into this complex issue aims to bring greater clarity and perspective to the unfolding situation.

Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to clarify the nature of the changes that have occurred during past termination events. The original version of the article stated that terminations have transformed vast icy expanses into tropical grasslands. Upon further review and consultation with experts, we have revised this statement to more accurately reflect the transformation into more temperate environments or tundra, rather than tropical grasslands specifically. We strive for accuracy and appreciate our readers’ understanding.

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